Flights are cheapest 5 to 16 weeks out in 2019: Here’s when to book
Trying to find the absolute cheapest airfare for a trip you are planning is like playing a game that feels too easy to lose. Now in this era of ‘big data’ where many companies are able to check airfares on every route every day to calculate the cheapest possible time to buy, it’s finally a bit easier.
Only a few years ago the advice was often to buy between 4 and 6 weeks out, but things have changed and it really depends on where you are going. As you’ll see in the 2019 update below, the window for buying the cheapest fares starts earlier these days and buying about 4 months out often leads to the best deals. We’ve summarized a variety of studies below and with a quick scan you should be able to get some insight on when to buy and when to wait.
Note: This article was first published in 2012, and has been updated and revised each year as new information has come out, most recently in February, 2019.
2019 UPDATE: The data for 2018 has been similar to 2016 and 2017, but it's still complicated
As of 2019 there are quite a few different companies that are analyzing millions of airfare purchases in order to find the money-saving trends. They tend to show the same pattern, which is that buying two or four months early is the sweet spot for most tickets.
For the tests we ran below we used the very helpful tool from Cheapair.com.
Summary: Buying air tickets earlier will usually save you money
In years past the sweet spot for buying cheap tickets often didn’t start until 6 to 8 weeks before the flight, but the data from 2018 shows once again that the cheaper airfares are now usually available starting 4 to 6 months out in many cases. In other words, if you are sure you want to fly on particular dates, you can usually get something close to the lowest possible fare if you book almost half a year out.
Another interesting thing about the data is that once you reach the beginning of that “sweet spot” where fares are near their low for any given flight, they still bounce around by up to US$50 over the next couple of months before they start heading higher as the flight approaches. So the best strategy is to set an alert for fare decreases on the route that you are shopping for, and buy as soon as you get one of those dips.
North America to Europe: 7 to 16 weeks out is usually the sweet spot
The optimal purchase window varies a bit depending on your departure and arrival cities, but generally speaking if you are flying between North America and Europe then the fares will be close to their lowest about 16 weeks out and you usually (but not always) don’t have to worry about them shooting up until about 7 weeks out.
As long as you are within that 16-week window, the longer you wait the greater the chance that the fares will start jumping up for good. This is especially true for popular travel periods such as July and August. In spring and autumn you can usually get away with waiting a bit longer.
North America to the Caribbean: Book 3 to 12 weeks out
The great news is that if you want to go to a Caribbean hot spot such as Cancun, San Juan, or Nassau, you can often get the lowest fares only 2 or 3 weeks out. You can book as early as 10 to 12 weeks out and lock in the best fares, but they usually don’t go any lower than that so waiting longer isn’t really advisable if you are sure when you want to go.
The Caribbean hurricanes in 2017 won’t change anything, in case you were curious. The islands that were affected most are all small islands that only got a small percentage of Caribbean flights in the first place. The busy airports such as Cancun, Punta Cana, and even San Juan, Puerto Rico (which has fully recovered) should carry on the same as before when it comes to airfare windows.
North America to Asia/Pacific: 8 to 20 weeks is cheapest
As of 2016 it was necessary to book long flights between North America and Asia almost half a year in advance for the lowest fares, but in 2017 and into 2018 it seems that you can book between about 8 and 20 weeks to get something close to the lowest possible price on any flight. Generally speaking, the longer the flight the earlier that people book it, so it’s wise to book as soon as you are sure of your dates.
The good news is that you no longer have to book so far in advance to get something close to the lowest fare. The more obscure your destination (Hanoi, Kathmandu etc), the earlier you should probably book. For more common destinations such as Tokyo, Singapore, and Bangkok, you have more time to wait.
North America to Middle East & Africa: 6 to 12 weeks is best
Another case where flight shoppers in 2019 can wait a bit longer to get a great deal than even a year ago, you should now be able to get a good fare to a place like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Cairo only 6 weeks or so out.
North America to South America: 5 to 16 weeks is cheapest
In 2019 there is a wider range for the lowest fares going from North America to South America. Many of these are not especially popular routes so there isn’t much competition on them. In cases like this it’s usually best to book early because if there is only one airline flying that route, you are vulnerable to a nasty surprise.
On short and popular routes, 3 to 4 weeks is usually fine
If you are flying on a very popular route, and especially a shorter one such as Los Angeles to Las Vegas or San Francisco, or New York to Washington DC, the window with the lowest fares is usually between 2 or 3 weeks and 8 weeks or so. Since so many people book these kinds of flights with little notice, you can usually get a very low fare even 3 weeks out.
Flights within Europe: Buy as early as possible
In reality the cheapest fares within Europe are almost all on the low-cost carriers such as Easyjet and RyanAir. If you are flying on any of those airlines, the fares ALWAYS start out cheap and get more expensive as more seats are sold. So the cheapest time to buy on a low-cost airline is NOW (or as soon as tickets go on sale, which is usually 11 months out).
Flying on a low-cost carrier (even to Europe): Buy now
As mentioned just above, if you are flying on one of the low-cost airlines, the seats go on sale about 11 months out at the lowest price, and they keep getting more expensive as each next group of seats are sold.
This is even true on Norwegian Airlines between the US and Europe. They offer the lowest fares in general on scores of popular routes, so if you are sure of your dates you should buy the tickets as soon as possible to lock in the lowest fare. They won’t be getting any cheaper.
Cheapest times of the year to fly
The trends above should be valid for flights for most of 2018 and into 2019, but there are a few times of the year that are always a bit cheaper than others. For this information we look to research from Rick Seaney of FareCompare, who has been doing this longer than anyone else.
Domestic US flights are cheapest
January 7 to March 5 (between Christmas Break and Spring Break)
April 18 to June 2 (between Spring Break and Summer travel season)
August 22 to mid December (most summer trips end and autumn is a slower season)
If you can fly in any of the periods mentioned above you are likely to get lower fares than if you fly during the traditionally busier periods.
US to Europe flights are cheapest
Before June and after mid August (summer season is by far the busiest, and it ends earlier than you might think)
Weekdays and especially Tuesdays and Wednesdays (Even more so than domestic travel, trans-Atlantic travelers like to travel Fridays through Sundays, so flying the other days will almost always be cheaper).
Cheapest time to book flights for Christmas and New Year's trips
According to a 2015 study by Skyscanner, the absolute cheapest time to book flights for the popular dates just before Christmas and New Years is August 10 to 16, at least based on their 2014 data. The study also shows that fares only inch up a bit in later August and into September, but that by early November the fares will be closer to their peak.
Previously we’d heard that it’s best to buy holiday flights as early as possible, which is usually 11 months out for most airlines. I think that’s still mostly true, partly because it will allow you to pick the best possible departure times in both directions. But if you aren’t quite so picky as to which time of day you leave and return, waiting until mid August seems like a decent idea and you’ll still get a relatively good fare.
Important exception: Book flights on low-cost airlines as early as possible, always
If you are thinking about booking a flight on a low-cost airline, such as Southwest or Spirit in the US, or EasyJet or Ryanair in Europe, or Air Asia in Asia, the cheapest fare will always be as early as you are ready to commit. Unlike the more traditional airlines, the low-cost carrier revenue model is based on starting with all seats as cheap as they’ll ever be when the flight is officially in the system. Then as seats are sold on that flight, the fare goes up as the plane is selling out. So maybe the first 20% of the seats are sold at the lowest price, and when those are gone, the next 20% are sold at a higher price, and so forth until all seats are sold or the plane takes off.
However, it’s important to consider the fact that “low-cost airlines” aren’t necessarily cheaper than their more traditional counterparts. Specifically, Southwest Airlines will often be more expensive than American or United, at least once the first group of cheap seats is gone. Also, since traditional airlines do in fact lower fares during the sweet spot of a few weeks to a few months before departure, you might find that waiting for those lower fares might be the best deal of all.
Flights are still often cheapest on Tuesdays and Wednesdays
There has been some confusion over the years about this fact, partly because some of the reporting has been about the day of the week the flight is booked rather than the day of the week the flight is taken. Some data showed that prices were higher for bookings on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and lower on Saturdays. The problem with this is that most business fares are booked on weekdays and those fares are higher, and most people buying on a Saturday are leisure travelers and they are price-sensitive so they only buy cheaper tickets.
My favorite trick for finding the best fares for an upcoming flight is to check for that route on a Wednesday and returning on a Wednesday. That will almost always show you the lowest possible fare, and then you can compare prices of other days of the week to see how much more you are willing to pay to fly on, say, a Friday or Saturday.
The advice: Check any and every day of the week, and if it’s the weekend you might want to wait a few more days to see if fares drop.
Why do airfares go up and down and up again as the day approaches?
Looking at the data above, you might think the airlines are playing some sort of game with flyers, but these pricing policies are actually a result of elaborate data and computer models that help them make the most money from each plane that leaves the ground. Here’s why:
People who buy plane tickets early are less price sensitive
In the world of economics they call this being “inelastic” in that in some situations consumers will buy almost exactly as many tickets, even if the price is higher. Airlines (obviously) want to maximize their profit for every seat they sell on the plane, so they take advantage of those who are driven to lock in early.
Consumers who buy early might:
- Already have set vacation days they want to use all of
- Be attending an event, such as a wedding, where there’s no flexibility
- Be someone who feels great stress until the ticket is locked in
In the above situations, whether a round-trip between Los Angeles and London is US$800 or US$1100, the person buying at least 3 months out is likely to buy either way. There is little incentive to airlines to sell a ticket for $800 if they’d sell almost as many at $1100.
People who buy plane tickets late are also less price sensitive
Similarly, consumers who are interested in flying 10 or fewer days from any given moment are also inelastic. They are likely to pay a premium for the convenience of going soon, so there’s little incentive for airlines to discount these tickets either.
Consumers who buy at the last minute might:
- Have just gotten approval for fixed time off soon
- Have an event on a fixed date (a football game, etc)
- Be someone who hates to commit to things early, and is willing to pay extra for the added flexibility
Now, keep in mind, that anyone who is hoping to fly in 10 days or fewer from now will see higher prices, and they’ll have the option of going 2 or 3 weeks later to save quite a bit of money. This price discrimination allows airlines to sell more expensive seats to those who can’t wait, and cheaper tickets to those who can.
What happened to cheap “last-minute” fares?
In reality, it’s always been difficult to find last-minute airfare bargains, at least to specific places you already want to visit. There are still examples of those weekly fare sales where an airline publishes a list of last minute bargain flights, but anyone who’s paid attention to them can see the problem.
They tend to offer cheap flights between obscure city pairs on the least popular travel dates. So if you are ready to fly between, say, Charlotte and Bermuda this coming Saturday and return the following Tuesday, those last-minute deals could be for you. But for most of us, they never appear for places we really want to go and at times we want to travel.
Why no last-minute deals, you might ask? Why are airlines willing to fly with empty seats instead of filling them for low prices?
The reason airlines don’t lower prices for unsold seats at the last minute is that the last thing they want to do is condition travelers to wait until the last minute, hoping for a bargain, and then sometimes not flying at all when a bargain doesn’t appear.
Think about it. If you wanted to go from Los Angeles to London at some point soon, and a round-trip next month is $900, but if you go in 2 days it’s only $650, you are likely to buy the cheap ticket two days from now, or skip it and hope that the same deal is available next month when you are ready to go.
Airlines make more money on each plane-load of people if they condition passengers into buying earlier at higher prices, or very early at even higher prices.
When to wait for fare sales
This all ties in with the economic principles above. You’ll notice fare sales by various airlines, and they usually appear in the middle of a season (summer, for example) trying to fill up seats for the rest of that season. In some cases they’ll announce an autumn fare sale in August, but it always tends to be for times of the year when the fewest people travel, namely, January through March plus October and November.
If you are waiting for a fare sale and wondering when it might appear, it’s important to consider the airlines’ motivation in announcing them. Let’s say they announced an October fare sale in June, with round-trip fares way lower than those offered in summer. That would actually cannibalize their business for July through September. If someone is considering paying a high fare to fly in August, the airlines are not motivated to show them a much lower fare if they waited. That would lead to empty seats in late summer, which would be very costly for them.
In almost all cases you are best off waiting until 6 weeks or so before your departure date, but it’s also important to track the fares before that, and keep an eye on fare sales.
This same research by the AP also said that fare sales usually appear on Tuesdays and are over by the end of Thursday, so check fares early in the week and if a price drops then jump on it. They also found the highest fares showed up for those searching on Saturdays and Sundays, so you might be best off just skipping the weekends for fare research anyway.
HELLO I AM LOOKING TO GO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THE END OF DECEMBER FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY AND I NOTICED THE FLIGHTS ARE EXPENSIVE NOW. WHEN IS THE BEST TIME TO BOOK THERE?
JENNIFER,
YOU DON’T MENTION YOUR STARTING POINT, WHICH IS IMPORTANT, BUT FOR NOW I’LL ASSUME THAT YOU ARE STARTING IN THE US OR CANADA. STRANGELY ENOUGH, FLIGHTS TO THE CARIBBEAN TEND TO BE CHEAPEST ONLY 2 OR 3 WEEKS OUT. HOWEVER, THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER IS THE ABSOLUTE BUSIEST WEEK FOR FLIGHTS INTO THE CARIBBEAN, SO IT’S HARDER TO GET A LOW FARE NO MATTER WHEN YOU BUY.
IF YOU CAN BE FLEXIBLE AND FLY OUT AND BACK ON A RANGE OF WEEKDAYS THEN YOU CAN PROBABLY WAIT AND CHECK FARES FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, AND AT SOME POINT YOU MIGHT SEE A FARE DROP. BUT IF YOU HAVE SPECIFIC DATES IN MIND AND ESPECIALLY IF THOSE DATES ARE WEEKENDS, THEN YOU MIGHT NEVER SEE A PRICE DROP BECAUSE THE AIRLINES KNOW THEY CAN FILL THOSE SEATS AT HIGH PRICES EVENTUALLY. BEST OF LUCK WITH THIS!!
Hi,
I’m looking for a ticket for Ghana for first week of July. I’ve been scouring the travel sites for the past month but there doesn’t seem to be any sales. Should I go ahead and make a purchase or wait for the 2 – 3 months suggestions.
Will be travelling from Canada to Ghana.
Wonderer OO,
From everything I’ve seen on long flights like this, the lowest fares have been getting earlier, as in 3 to 6 months out. So most likely you are within the best window for getting a good price, and I doubt fares will drop much in May or June for a flight in July.
But as long as you are a bit flexible, in that you can go on one of a few different days and return on a few different days, then you might still wait a bit and see if any of the fares drop in the coming weeks. However, if you really need to fly out on a specific day and fly back on a specific day, and especially if those are weekends, then you should probably buy soon. Best of luck. -Roger
Hi,
Thank you for your article. Very informative.
I am looking for a midweek flight to Barbados from Toronto.
Air Canada has a sale on now but not for June 30th.
Should I wait like Kayak suggest for 2 months before, or you think I should grab what I get now?
Curious,
Those Caribbean airfares are tricky because the lowest prices are usually only 2 or 3 weeks out, so it can be a bit nerve racking to wait and hope. The end of June is a popular time for Europeans to flood to the Caribbean, but I don’t think it’s a huge time for Canadians, so I think you could be okay waiting. So my best guess is that waiting will end up getting you a cheaper fare. I’d check frequently, rather than just in the final weeks because the fares can drop at any time.
The one small warning would be that if you are absolutely locked into dates and you already have a resort paid for for those dates, it might not be worth risking it. But if you are at least a bit flexible and can also book a hotel right after you book a flight, you should get a better deal by waiting. I’m sure there will be plenty of vacancies in July in Barbados, so I think waiting on that will work in your favor as well. Best of luck with this. -Roger
Hi,
I am planning to visit to paris from kualalumpur around the week of 26th July for 4 to 5 days. Can i get some advise on when shall i purchase the ticket as the ticket price is seems quit heavy still now.
Afnan,
I’m seeing fares starting at US$709 for that return flight from KUL to CDG on Qatar Airways with good connections, and I don’t think you’ll do much better than that. One challenge might be if you are trying to come back to KUL right at the end of July or beginning of August. Millions of French people have all of July or August off, so many of them get on or off planes to far away destinations right at the end of the month. In other words, if you can fly closer to the middle of the month, you might save some money.
On the other hand, if you are seeing something close to US$709 for a good flight, I think the chances are better that it goes up from here rather than down. I just came from KUL myself a week ago and that seems like a good fare for such a long flight on a good airline. Best of luck. -Roger
Hi Roger,
I’m living in Kiev Ukraine. I plan to go to Hyderabad, India from May 2016 – August 2016. Right now, the price is $945. Should I wait to buy it or should I take the price? Thanks in advance for your help.
Kumar,
Just plugging in some random dates in the months you mentioned, I am seeing fares starting at US$724 for that round-trip. So I’m assuming that you are hoping to go on specific popular dates, probably weekends. If that’s the case then I think US$945 is probably about as low as you can hope for since departure is only about two months away. In other words, the US$724 fare I’m seeing (May 18 to August 16 using FlyDubai to Emirates) is probably about as low as you can find, and it probably won’t go lower over those popular months. And if you want to go on popular dates or days of the week, then the US$945 is probably the best you can do. There’s always a chance the fare might go down a bit in the coming weeks, but I’d say it’s more likely the fare goes up from here. Best of luck. -Roger
Hello Roger,
I will be traveling from Brussels to Vancouver in May.
When checking the tickets, I had a reasonable price ranging from 800-900EUR. I was surprised that the prices skyrocket to nearly 1200EUR 2 days later (concerning flights with proper schedule such as BA and AC)
Any chance the fares go down as May/June are usually low season?
Many thanks for your kind advise.
Alexia,
Since May is not high season for that route, there is definitely a chance that the fare might go back down a bit before going back up. If I were you I’d try to buy no later than the middle or maybe end of March, but since the fare seems to have gone up just recently, it probably won’t go up again soon. In other words, I think time is on your side right now and you might get lucky and see the fare drop back down in the next few weeks. Good luck on this. -Roger
Hi Roger,i will be traveling to New York from Istanbul on July 2 round trip , i always book with Orbitz, last month when i was checking the prices, it was cheap like $590.00 – $600.00 but i just waited but know its shows $815.00. What should i do, wait or buy, and i always fly with Delta, non stop, also on some websites theres a rumors that Orbitz, Expedia, etc, track you, thats why the prices always high, is there any truth in to this? Anway when do you think the prices will go down and what is the right time to get tickets,
Thanks.
Faye,
Since July 2 is an extremely popular time to fly (partly because of the US holiday and also that half of Europe gets all of July off so they all head out around then), I think it’s most likely that the fares won’t go down again and will probably go up at some point. As you hopefully know, non-stop flights are almost always more expensive than stop-over flights on routes like these, confirmed by tests we run every year for this exact thing. In other words, I think booking soon might be best, as the fare on those non-stops seems much more likely to go up than down from here.
Orbitz isn’t really known for having the best deals, so I’d recommend checking at least a couple other sites. For example, check momondo.com, which should show the absolute lowest fares, and also kayak.com.
I’ve also heard those rumors that those booking sites track you AND sometimes show higher fares for certain categories of people. As a website owner myself I can guarantee that they DO track you, but the airlines deny that they offer higher prices to certain people and I’ve never seen any proof that they do this. By the way, this site doesn’t track you at all, mostly because we never ask you to put in any data so we have nothing to track anyway.
Still, if you use momondo.com or kayak.com you should see the lowest prices offered for sure, so you’ll know if orbitz.com is showing a higher price to you. But again, Orbitz usually doesn’t show all the lowest fares, so even this isn’t a guarantee that they are showing higher (or lower) fares to users who have made those searches before. Sorry that this isn’t better news, and best of luck. -Roger
Hi Roger it appears you are the person to ask, i am looking at flying to China beijing in august for a 6 month teaching placement followed by some traveling ending up in Tokyo to return to Manchester.
so far i am being advised to buy a return ticket to Beijing with a flexi pass for an additional £99 which will allow me to change date/location of return only paying the differenc ein flight cost. currently the prices are around £600 mark for the return. should i go for this or wait until later in the year or 2 1 way flights?
thank you 🙂
Gemma,
This is a tricky one (which is obviously why you asked!). If you are being advised to buy a return ticket for immigration reasons, as in they want to see proof of going home before you are let in, then do you really have a choice? But if it’s being recommended as the cheapest way to get to Beijing and then back from Tokyo to Manchester, that is a different story.
So I can’t really answer the question, but I will offer a few facts that might help. For one thing, return tickets between Europe and Asia are generally the same price as a one-way ticket in each direction. So if you don’t NEED an outbound ticket to get into China, then your cheapest option is likely to buy a one-way ticket to Beijing and then a one-way ticket from Tokyo to Madchester as soon as you are sure of your return date.
Also, I’d assume that the flexi-pass ticket would require you to book on the same airline from Tokyo that you flew into Beijing on. The potential problem with that is that you might trade in your £300 outbound ticket only to discover that their flights from Tokyo are £550 each way, while another airline might only charge £350 for the same route.
Another strategy to be aware of is that you can sometimes (but definitely not always) get cheap one-way fares by booking a flight from Asia into Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Doha, and then another flight onward from there. In other words, you might find a cheap ticket from Tokyo to Dubai and then another cheap ticket from Dubai to Manchester (or London). I’m actually in Bali at the moment and in a couple weeks I’m flying from the Maldives to Dubai and then to Europe from there a few days later because it offers the most flexibility (and I like Dubai).
Lastly, I actually think £600 return is a pretty good fare from the UK to China, so I don’t think you are going to do much better, and you could do worse. I’m not sure if any of this helped, but I hope it did and feel free to write back if I missed the point completely. -Roger
Hello Roger,
At the very outset, Thank you for being a travel advisor for last 4 years (gathering from your first response; perhaps even more).
My question… I will be traveling to Chennai, India during July 1st week. Has the trend changed during the last few years or is March end-April first week the best time to book tickets.
Thank you!
Venkat,
I’m happy to help, so thanks for mentioning it. You don’t mention a starting point, so I assume it’s the US or Europe or some other place far from India. Whatever the case, the most recent trends has been that those longer flights have had their lower prices 3 to 6 months out, so I’d be ready to buy soon. So many Europeans get all of July off that those early-July flights are going to be popular, so I doubt that fares will be going down in the coming months. More likely is that they’ll go up, so buy soon if you can. Good luck. -Roger
Taking a trip to Italy on specific dates in July into August. when would be the best time to buy? Think I missed the boat on buying really inexpensive tickets I saw at the end of December but hoping they will at least come down from there current prices. Any help is appreciated. Family of five
Alicia,
I’m assuming that you are starting in the US or Canada, although in this case it probably doesn’t make much difference as long as you are coming from outside of Europe. As you know, July and August are extremely popular for trips to Europe so the airlines know that they can sell all of those seats at pretty high prices. My best guess is that fares will hover around the same area for a couple more months, maybe going down a bit and then going up a bit here and there. So in other words, I think you should think about buying soon, although I doubt that fares will just keep going up and up and up from here. I’d want to buy by April, and hopefully you’ll see a fare drop at some point soon.
Aside from that, your best bets would be to look for flights on Wednesdays or into alternate airports and that sort of thing. Rome and Milan are the two cheapest airports to fly into in Italy. Best of luck with this. -Roger