Flights are cheapest 5 to 16 weeks out in 2019: Here’s when to book
Trying to find the absolute cheapest airfare for a trip you are planning is like playing a game that feels too easy to lose. Now in this era of ‘big data’ where many companies are able to check airfares on every route every day to calculate the cheapest possible time to buy, it’s finally a bit easier.
Only a few years ago the advice was often to buy between 4 and 6 weeks out, but things have changed and it really depends on where you are going. As you’ll see in the 2019 update below, the window for buying the cheapest fares starts earlier these days and buying about 4 months out often leads to the best deals. We’ve summarized a variety of studies below and with a quick scan you should be able to get some insight on when to buy and when to wait.
Note: This article was first published in 2012, and has been updated and revised each year as new information has come out, most recently in February, 2019.
2019 UPDATE: The data for 2018 has been similar to 2016 and 2017, but it's still complicated
As of 2019 there are quite a few different companies that are analyzing millions of airfare purchases in order to find the money-saving trends. They tend to show the same pattern, which is that buying two or four months early is the sweet spot for most tickets.
For the tests we ran below we used the very helpful tool from Cheapair.com.
Summary: Buying air tickets earlier will usually save you money
In years past the sweet spot for buying cheap tickets often didn’t start until 6 to 8 weeks before the flight, but the data from 2018 shows once again that the cheaper airfares are now usually available starting 4 to 6 months out in many cases. In other words, if you are sure you want to fly on particular dates, you can usually get something close to the lowest possible fare if you book almost half a year out.
Another interesting thing about the data is that once you reach the beginning of that “sweet spot” where fares are near their low for any given flight, they still bounce around by up to US$50 over the next couple of months before they start heading higher as the flight approaches. So the best strategy is to set an alert for fare decreases on the route that you are shopping for, and buy as soon as you get one of those dips.
North America to Europe: 7 to 16 weeks out is usually the sweet spot
The optimal purchase window varies a bit depending on your departure and arrival cities, but generally speaking if you are flying between North America and Europe then the fares will be close to their lowest about 16 weeks out and you usually (but not always) don’t have to worry about them shooting up until about 7 weeks out.
As long as you are within that 16-week window, the longer you wait the greater the chance that the fares will start jumping up for good. This is especially true for popular travel periods such as July and August. In spring and autumn you can usually get away with waiting a bit longer.
North America to the Caribbean: Book 3 to 12 weeks out
The great news is that if you want to go to a Caribbean hot spot such as Cancun, San Juan, or Nassau, you can often get the lowest fares only 2 or 3 weeks out. You can book as early as 10 to 12 weeks out and lock in the best fares, but they usually don’t go any lower than that so waiting longer isn’t really advisable if you are sure when you want to go.
The Caribbean hurricanes in 2017 won’t change anything, in case you were curious. The islands that were affected most are all small islands that only got a small percentage of Caribbean flights in the first place. The busy airports such as Cancun, Punta Cana, and even San Juan, Puerto Rico (which has fully recovered) should carry on the same as before when it comes to airfare windows.
North America to Asia/Pacific: 8 to 20 weeks is cheapest
As of 2016 it was necessary to book long flights between North America and Asia almost half a year in advance for the lowest fares, but in 2017 and into 2018 it seems that you can book between about 8 and 20 weeks to get something close to the lowest possible price on any flight. Generally speaking, the longer the flight the earlier that people book it, so it’s wise to book as soon as you are sure of your dates.
The good news is that you no longer have to book so far in advance to get something close to the lowest fare. The more obscure your destination (Hanoi, Kathmandu etc), the earlier you should probably book. For more common destinations such as Tokyo, Singapore, and Bangkok, you have more time to wait.
North America to Middle East & Africa: 6 to 12 weeks is best
Another case where flight shoppers in 2019 can wait a bit longer to get a great deal than even a year ago, you should now be able to get a good fare to a place like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Cairo only 6 weeks or so out.
North America to South America: 5 to 16 weeks is cheapest
In 2019 there is a wider range for the lowest fares going from North America to South America. Many of these are not especially popular routes so there isn’t much competition on them. In cases like this it’s usually best to book early because if there is only one airline flying that route, you are vulnerable to a nasty surprise.
On short and popular routes, 3 to 4 weeks is usually fine
If you are flying on a very popular route, and especially a shorter one such as Los Angeles to Las Vegas or San Francisco, or New York to Washington DC, the window with the lowest fares is usually between 2 or 3 weeks and 8 weeks or so. Since so many people book these kinds of flights with little notice, you can usually get a very low fare even 3 weeks out.
Flights within Europe: Buy as early as possible
In reality the cheapest fares within Europe are almost all on the low-cost carriers such as Easyjet and RyanAir. If you are flying on any of those airlines, the fares ALWAYS start out cheap and get more expensive as more seats are sold. So the cheapest time to buy on a low-cost airline is NOW (or as soon as tickets go on sale, which is usually 11 months out).
Flying on a low-cost carrier (even to Europe): Buy now
As mentioned just above, if you are flying on one of the low-cost airlines, the seats go on sale about 11 months out at the lowest price, and they keep getting more expensive as each next group of seats are sold.
This is even true on Norwegian Airlines between the US and Europe. They offer the lowest fares in general on scores of popular routes, so if you are sure of your dates you should buy the tickets as soon as possible to lock in the lowest fare. They won’t be getting any cheaper.
Cheapest times of the year to fly
The trends above should be valid for flights for most of 2018 and into 2019, but there are a few times of the year that are always a bit cheaper than others. For this information we look to research from Rick Seaney of FareCompare, who has been doing this longer than anyone else.
Domestic US flights are cheapest
January 7 to March 5 (between Christmas Break and Spring Break)
April 18 to June 2 (between Spring Break and Summer travel season)
August 22 to mid December (most summer trips end and autumn is a slower season)
If you can fly in any of the periods mentioned above you are likely to get lower fares than if you fly during the traditionally busier periods.
US to Europe flights are cheapest
Before June and after mid August (summer season is by far the busiest, and it ends earlier than you might think)
Weekdays and especially Tuesdays and Wednesdays (Even more so than domestic travel, trans-Atlantic travelers like to travel Fridays through Sundays, so flying the other days will almost always be cheaper).
Cheapest time to book flights for Christmas and New Year's trips
According to a 2015 study by Skyscanner, the absolute cheapest time to book flights for the popular dates just before Christmas and New Years is August 10 to 16, at least based on their 2014 data. The study also shows that fares only inch up a bit in later August and into September, but that by early November the fares will be closer to their peak.
Previously we’d heard that it’s best to buy holiday flights as early as possible, which is usually 11 months out for most airlines. I think that’s still mostly true, partly because it will allow you to pick the best possible departure times in both directions. But if you aren’t quite so picky as to which time of day you leave and return, waiting until mid August seems like a decent idea and you’ll still get a relatively good fare.
Important exception: Book flights on low-cost airlines as early as possible, always
If you are thinking about booking a flight on a low-cost airline, such as Southwest or Spirit in the US, or EasyJet or Ryanair in Europe, or Air Asia in Asia, the cheapest fare will always be as early as you are ready to commit. Unlike the more traditional airlines, the low-cost carrier revenue model is based on starting with all seats as cheap as they’ll ever be when the flight is officially in the system. Then as seats are sold on that flight, the fare goes up as the plane is selling out. So maybe the first 20% of the seats are sold at the lowest price, and when those are gone, the next 20% are sold at a higher price, and so forth until all seats are sold or the plane takes off.
However, it’s important to consider the fact that “low-cost airlines” aren’t necessarily cheaper than their more traditional counterparts. Specifically, Southwest Airlines will often be more expensive than American or United, at least once the first group of cheap seats is gone. Also, since traditional airlines do in fact lower fares during the sweet spot of a few weeks to a few months before departure, you might find that waiting for those lower fares might be the best deal of all.
Flights are still often cheapest on Tuesdays and Wednesdays
There has been some confusion over the years about this fact, partly because some of the reporting has been about the day of the week the flight is booked rather than the day of the week the flight is taken. Some data showed that prices were higher for bookings on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and lower on Saturdays. The problem with this is that most business fares are booked on weekdays and those fares are higher, and most people buying on a Saturday are leisure travelers and they are price-sensitive so they only buy cheaper tickets.
My favorite trick for finding the best fares for an upcoming flight is to check for that route on a Wednesday and returning on a Wednesday. That will almost always show you the lowest possible fare, and then you can compare prices of other days of the week to see how much more you are willing to pay to fly on, say, a Friday or Saturday.
The advice: Check any and every day of the week, and if it’s the weekend you might want to wait a few more days to see if fares drop.
Why do airfares go up and down and up again as the day approaches?
Looking at the data above, you might think the airlines are playing some sort of game with flyers, but these pricing policies are actually a result of elaborate data and computer models that help them make the most money from each plane that leaves the ground. Here’s why:
People who buy plane tickets early are less price sensitive
In the world of economics they call this being “inelastic” in that in some situations consumers will buy almost exactly as many tickets, even if the price is higher. Airlines (obviously) want to maximize their profit for every seat they sell on the plane, so they take advantage of those who are driven to lock in early.
Consumers who buy early might:
- Already have set vacation days they want to use all of
- Be attending an event, such as a wedding, where there’s no flexibility
- Be someone who feels great stress until the ticket is locked in
In the above situations, whether a round-trip between Los Angeles and London is US$800 or US$1100, the person buying at least 3 months out is likely to buy either way. There is little incentive to airlines to sell a ticket for $800 if they’d sell almost as many at $1100.
People who buy plane tickets late are also less price sensitive
Similarly, consumers who are interested in flying 10 or fewer days from any given moment are also inelastic. They are likely to pay a premium for the convenience of going soon, so there’s little incentive for airlines to discount these tickets either.
Consumers who buy at the last minute might:
- Have just gotten approval for fixed time off soon
- Have an event on a fixed date (a football game, etc)
- Be someone who hates to commit to things early, and is willing to pay extra for the added flexibility
Now, keep in mind, that anyone who is hoping to fly in 10 days or fewer from now will see higher prices, and they’ll have the option of going 2 or 3 weeks later to save quite a bit of money. This price discrimination allows airlines to sell more expensive seats to those who can’t wait, and cheaper tickets to those who can.
What happened to cheap “last-minute” fares?
In reality, it’s always been difficult to find last-minute airfare bargains, at least to specific places you already want to visit. There are still examples of those weekly fare sales where an airline publishes a list of last minute bargain flights, but anyone who’s paid attention to them can see the problem.
They tend to offer cheap flights between obscure city pairs on the least popular travel dates. So if you are ready to fly between, say, Charlotte and Bermuda this coming Saturday and return the following Tuesday, those last-minute deals could be for you. But for most of us, they never appear for places we really want to go and at times we want to travel.
Why no last-minute deals, you might ask? Why are airlines willing to fly with empty seats instead of filling them for low prices?
The reason airlines don’t lower prices for unsold seats at the last minute is that the last thing they want to do is condition travelers to wait until the last minute, hoping for a bargain, and then sometimes not flying at all when a bargain doesn’t appear.
Think about it. If you wanted to go from Los Angeles to London at some point soon, and a round-trip next month is $900, but if you go in 2 days it’s only $650, you are likely to buy the cheap ticket two days from now, or skip it and hope that the same deal is available next month when you are ready to go.
Airlines make more money on each plane-load of people if they condition passengers into buying earlier at higher prices, or very early at even higher prices.
When to wait for fare sales
This all ties in with the economic principles above. You’ll notice fare sales by various airlines, and they usually appear in the middle of a season (summer, for example) trying to fill up seats for the rest of that season. In some cases they’ll announce an autumn fare sale in August, but it always tends to be for times of the year when the fewest people travel, namely, January through March plus October and November.
If you are waiting for a fare sale and wondering when it might appear, it’s important to consider the airlines’ motivation in announcing them. Let’s say they announced an October fare sale in June, with round-trip fares way lower than those offered in summer. That would actually cannibalize their business for July through September. If someone is considering paying a high fare to fly in August, the airlines are not motivated to show them a much lower fare if they waited. That would lead to empty seats in late summer, which would be very costly for them.
In almost all cases you are best off waiting until 6 weeks or so before your departure date, but it’s also important to track the fares before that, and keep an eye on fare sales.
This same research by the AP also said that fare sales usually appear on Tuesdays and are over by the end of Thursday, so check fares early in the week and if a price drops then jump on it. They also found the highest fares showed up for those searching on Saturdays and Sundays, so you might be best off just skipping the weekends for fare research anyway.
Hi Roger,
Chicago(USA) to Chennai(India)
ONE WAY Journey.
Departure date: 23,24,25,26Jan2016….
would like to leave on 24 or 25th Jan.
Would like to go from Air India.
when is the best time to book the ticket?
I checked tickets are around $670, will this
be reduced further considering the oneway
journey.
Should I book from Online websites(Kayak,cheapoair etc) or Airline website itself?
Is it too early to book the ticket?
Thanks in advance!!
Gaurav,
I’m seeing fares of US$661 on Air India changing in Delhi if you leave on January 25, and $557 on Gulf Air (with 2 lengthy stopovers). As far as I can see, those fares are just about the lowest that are available on that route. Your travel date is definitely in the low season so I’m sure those flights are still mostly empty at this point. So on one hand, I doubt the fare will start climbing in the next couple of months, but on the other hand, they may not go down during that period either. I think if you find a departure time and connection that you like, it’s probably worth just buying as soon as you are sure you are going. I’d say there is a small chance that the fare might drop a bit, but probably not much if at all, and the next move might be higher anyway. I checked the flights for various dates sooner than that and they are all higher fares. Good luck on this. -Roger
Thanks for your reply Roger!! I really appreciate your guidance on this matter. I am glad that you are really a guiding light from the Sun amidst the darkness of “journey planning” to people.
After 80 Ryanair flights,i can say that the best range to buy this tickets is less or more about 25 days before-
I am thinking of visiting Iceland (Reykjavik) from Spain (Bilbao) in February for 4 days, but I have been looking at tickets for two of my friends who live in Miami. Would it be better to connect through Atlanta instead of flying directly from Miami? I have been looking at many sites. Some have been as high as $3,000 USD, and some as low $900.
Eloy,
I’m not sure I completely understand the question, but I’ll take a shot at it. There are no nonstop flights between Miami and Keflavík International Airport these days, and I don’t see any from Atlanta into Iceland either. So your friends in Miami will have to change planes elsewhere, probably in New York City or Toronto. I now see that IcelandAir (which is great, by the way) does fly out of Orlando, and that’s only about a 3-hour drive from the Miami area so it might be the fastest option.
If it were me I’d just look for the cheapest flight starting from Miami or Fort Lauderdale (these airports are very close together) to Keflavík International Airport, and choose the cheapest one with a reasonable connection. You might find a cheap one connecting through Berlin or elsewhere in Europe, but that is a LONG journey that way. Most likely they’d fly from MIA or FLL through JFK to Iceland, and JFK is basically on the way so it would be fast. Or if they could drive or take a shuttle from their home to Orlando and fly nonstop to Iceland from there, it might be even better. I hope this answers your question. If not, please clarify and I’ll try again. -Roger
Hi Roger! Thank you for your quick response in regards to my India/SE Asia trip. I bought a one way ticket to Kochi India from SFO in early January for $786 (Singapore Airlines). I hope that was a good deal! My next step is to buy my onward ticket from India into Nepal for early/mid April. I found a ticket for only $80 from Dehli to Kathmandu (Nepal Airlines). Is Nepal Airlines a good/reputable airline? And is $80 a good price? It seems incredibly cheap to me for airfare! Also, if I wait until I’m in India to buy my ticket into Bali from Nepal, would the price be cheaper because I’m buying it from India (as opposed to buying it before I leave the US)? Thank you again for all your great advice! ~Sarah
Sarah,
I’m glad this has helped and it sounds like you have found some good deals. I’ve not flown Nepal Airlines but it seems to get pretty good reviews, and while they seem to have had a few incidents over the years, that wouldn’t sway me because all planes are so much safer than any other type of travel in that region. If another airline (like Air India) is a similar price, it’s something to consider. The real danger in Nepal are the buses that go from Kathmandu to Pokhara and other cities that require a mountain pass leg. Just make sure you pick a good company for those, although when the weather is decent I think they are all safe. Yes, US$80 is a good price for that flight, but Air India also offers that fare. New Delhi to Kathmandu is only 85 minutes by air, so that fare doesn’t seem unusually cheap.
You won’t get cheaper airfares for onward flights once in India. The online fare will be the same no matter where you are. And if you will be flying on one of the low-cost airlines to Bali then the sooner you buy it the cheaper it will be. I’m a big fan of Air Asia and their flights start out very cheap and get more expensive as the seats are sold. You might be best off booking another cheap flight from Kathmandu back to Delhi and then a separate flight to Bali. You’d need a multi-entry visa for India for that. Whatever you do, research the options soon so you’ll know the best ways of doing that leg. Have a great trip. -Roger
Oh and one more thing. I found American fare late last night at 225 leaving at 555. I put the fare on the 24 hour hold. My target time to leave is 12 noon to 6 pm. I see the american fare is back up to 260 this morning. Should i just keep the fare and book the tickets? its frustrating seeing tickets in the 250 300 range from Vancouver..whereas I could just drive 3 -4 hours across the border to seattle airport and its $112. I just didnt want to do the drive though. thanks again
Hi roger …thanks for all your help.
Coming back from a cruise on Sunday Septmeber 27. Need one way tickets from Vancouver to Lax. When i first looked at prices back in March they were 75 dollars cheaper. They sti5ll seem to be hovering around the same prices within 10 dollars (and i have been monitoring 3 times a day the last 30 days). Im wondering if i should just buy now? I didn’t bite before because its such a short flight I thought for sure the prices would go down but Im not seeing the previous low fares. Back in march one way nonstop 160 now that same flights or similar are about 225 on up. What do you think?….Thanks again!
Angela,
Weirdly enough, I just checked flights on that date and I see loads of non-stops from Vancouver to LAX starting at US$136 per person, one-way. Alaska, Air Canada, WestJet, and Delta all have non-stops from US$136 to US$150. Sunday flights are popular so they don’t necessarily get cheaper as the date approaches because they are often booked up while the mid-week flights are still half empty.
I found those fares on kayak.com, by the way. If you are looking at something different please let me know and I’ll try to help. Otherwise I’d jump on one of those flights soon. The trend is that fares aren’t going down only a few weeks out as often as that used to happen. So let me know if we are looking at different things, and I’ll try to help if I can. -Roger
hi roger…I forgot to add because of the cruise disembarktion procedure and having to clear through customs they reccomend no flight earlier than 12 noon. So everything i have been targeting has to be in that time frame. I was hoping to get in the 175 range but Im not seeing it and starting to wonder if the fare will decrease at all. Im still 10 weeks out though. What do you think? thanks
Angela,
That explains it. The flights at around US$136 are mostly before 9am, although there is one on Air Canada for $137 leaving at 8:30pm, getting into LAX at 11:23pm. Some people, probably including me, would spend the day in Vancouver and head to the airport in the evening, but I understand that many people don’t want to do that and then get home late just to save US$100 per person.
It looks like WestJet has a nonstop flight at 4:35pm for US$206 per person. But if you can still get that American flight for US$225 then it could be better. In general I think you’ll be best off finding the current flight that works best for you and booking it ASAP. As mentioned, the airlines generally only lower fares when the planes are still mostly empty, and a prime-time flight on a Sunday afternoon is going to be in high demand. It’s probably already half full of other people getting off that same cruise.
And I agree that it’s frustrating, but renting a car and going through that border on a Sunday afternoon could also be a nightmare. I used to live in Portland and my family is from LA so I’ve long been unhappy with how much those flights usually are. Long story short, I think the chances of a significant fare dip on a good flight are very low, so lock up what you can get now. Best of luck. -Roger
My sister and I are going to St. Thomas in early November 2015. There is a straight USAir RT from Charlotte (for me), and a one stop (in Charlotte) flight from DCA for her – of course even though we get on the same plane, hers is $115 cheaper! Should we buy now ($656 and $541)or wait till later?
Celeste,
This is a frustrating example of what happens when one carrier controls a huge majority of flights in and out of a single airport. Another famous example is Atlanta and Delta, where people changing planes in Atlanta usually pay less than those starting in Atlanta on the same flight.
I just checked 3 different sets of dates and it appears that USAir keep their fares from Charlotte to St. Thomas starting at around $650 all year. I also saw American Airlines flights starting from Charlotte then changing in Boston then changing again in Miami on their way to St. Thomas for $483, but that routing is ridiculous and probably not worth it.
Anyway, long story short, it appears that $656 is pretty close to the lowest fare you’ll get for a nonstop round-trip between Charlotte and St. Thomas in the coming months. So I doubt the fare will go down, although it seems likely to stay at that same level for another month or two (if I had to guess). If you are sure you want to fly on those dates in November, it’s probably wise to book soon and get it over with. If you waited a few weeks there is a tiny chance that the fare will come down, but also a chance that it would become difficult or impossible for you and your sister to arrive on the same flight. Best of luck and have a great trip. -Roger
Thanks for your help Roger!
Roger that 😉
Thanks a lot!!
– Nick
Just a quick question: $1100 is the lowest I can get for a roundtrip fare ever or $1100 is the lowest during these months?
Nick,
It’s looking like US$1,100 roundtrip is about the lowest at any time of year between those two cities. You can fly from New York City to Mumbai for a bit under US$900 at times, but of course you have to get to NYC for that. Things obviously change and maybe there will be a good fare sale at some point. In general, US$1,100 seems pretty much the bottom, which isn’t surprising for flights that take you halfway around the world like that. By the way, Charlotte to Paris is about the same price of US$1,100 return, and it’s only halfway to Mumbai. So that is a pretty good fare in this day and age. Bon voyage. -Roger
Hi Roger,
First off- Appreciate the effort you’ve taken in putting together this article and also in replying to the queries.
I was looking up flights for leisure travel from Charlotte to Mumbai, India.
2 trips: One starting around mid- October and second around mid- December.
Any recommendations on when would be a good time to look for individual trip tickets?
Nick,
Thank you. I’d definitely start getting serious about buying the October ticket soon. For longer flights like this, the recent trend is toward fares being their lowest about 5 months out. For the mid-December one you might have another month or two before you’d have to start worrying about fares going up and not coming back down, except of course that is close to Christmas season so it might already be near the bottom of the price curve.
Even though India obviously doesn’t have its own large Christmas celebration, many people flood into Goa and other resort areas during that period. Also, many expat Indians have time off work so they head home in late December and early January. In other words, the closer your flights might come to the main Christmas break, the better chance that they will be going up in price from here.
If you can find a fare around US$1,100 roundtrip from Charlotte to Mumbai, that’s about as low as it’s going to get. I’m sure the flights that are close to Christmas are already higher than that, but hopefully flights in early December are still reasonable. Best of luck. -Roger
Thanks Roger for your inputs and efforts!!
Getting to it soon.