Flights are cheapest 5 to 16 weeks out in 2019: Here’s when to book
Trying to find the absolute cheapest airfare for a trip you are planning is like playing a game that feels too easy to lose. Now in this era of ‘big data’ where many companies are able to check airfares on every route every day to calculate the cheapest possible time to buy, it’s finally a bit easier.
Only a few years ago the advice was often to buy between 4 and 6 weeks out, but things have changed and it really depends on where you are going. As you’ll see in the 2019 update below, the window for buying the cheapest fares starts earlier these days and buying about 4 months out often leads to the best deals. We’ve summarized a variety of studies below and with a quick scan you should be able to get some insight on when to buy and when to wait.
Note: This article was first published in 2012, and has been updated and revised each year as new information has come out, most recently in February, 2019.
2019 UPDATE: The data for 2018 has been similar to 2016 and 2017, but it's still complicated
As of 2019 there are quite a few different companies that are analyzing millions of airfare purchases in order to find the money-saving trends. They tend to show the same pattern, which is that buying two or four months early is the sweet spot for most tickets.
For the tests we ran below we used the very helpful tool from Cheapair.com.
Summary: Buying air tickets earlier will usually save you money
In years past the sweet spot for buying cheap tickets often didn’t start until 6 to 8 weeks before the flight, but the data from 2018 shows once again that the cheaper airfares are now usually available starting 4 to 6 months out in many cases. In other words, if you are sure you want to fly on particular dates, you can usually get something close to the lowest possible fare if you book almost half a year out.
Another interesting thing about the data is that once you reach the beginning of that “sweet spot” where fares are near their low for any given flight, they still bounce around by up to US$50 over the next couple of months before they start heading higher as the flight approaches. So the best strategy is to set an alert for fare decreases on the route that you are shopping for, and buy as soon as you get one of those dips.
North America to Europe: 7 to 16 weeks out is usually the sweet spot
The optimal purchase window varies a bit depending on your departure and arrival cities, but generally speaking if you are flying between North America and Europe then the fares will be close to their lowest about 16 weeks out and you usually (but not always) don’t have to worry about them shooting up until about 7 weeks out.
As long as you are within that 16-week window, the longer you wait the greater the chance that the fares will start jumping up for good. This is especially true for popular travel periods such as July and August. In spring and autumn you can usually get away with waiting a bit longer.
North America to the Caribbean: Book 3 to 12 weeks out
The great news is that if you want to go to a Caribbean hot spot such as Cancun, San Juan, or Nassau, you can often get the lowest fares only 2 or 3 weeks out. You can book as early as 10 to 12 weeks out and lock in the best fares, but they usually don’t go any lower than that so waiting longer isn’t really advisable if you are sure when you want to go.
The Caribbean hurricanes in 2017 won’t change anything, in case you were curious. The islands that were affected most are all small islands that only got a small percentage of Caribbean flights in the first place. The busy airports such as Cancun, Punta Cana, and even San Juan, Puerto Rico (which has fully recovered) should carry on the same as before when it comes to airfare windows.
North America to Asia/Pacific: 8 to 20 weeks is cheapest
As of 2016 it was necessary to book long flights between North America and Asia almost half a year in advance for the lowest fares, but in 2017 and into 2018 it seems that you can book between about 8 and 20 weeks to get something close to the lowest possible price on any flight. Generally speaking, the longer the flight the earlier that people book it, so it’s wise to book as soon as you are sure of your dates.
The good news is that you no longer have to book so far in advance to get something close to the lowest fare. The more obscure your destination (Hanoi, Kathmandu etc), the earlier you should probably book. For more common destinations such as Tokyo, Singapore, and Bangkok, you have more time to wait.
North America to Middle East & Africa: 6 to 12 weeks is best
Another case where flight shoppers in 2019 can wait a bit longer to get a great deal than even a year ago, you should now be able to get a good fare to a place like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Cairo only 6 weeks or so out.
North America to South America: 5 to 16 weeks is cheapest
In 2019 there is a wider range for the lowest fares going from North America to South America. Many of these are not especially popular routes so there isn’t much competition on them. In cases like this it’s usually best to book early because if there is only one airline flying that route, you are vulnerable to a nasty surprise.
On short and popular routes, 3 to 4 weeks is usually fine
If you are flying on a very popular route, and especially a shorter one such as Los Angeles to Las Vegas or San Francisco, or New York to Washington DC, the window with the lowest fares is usually between 2 or 3 weeks and 8 weeks or so. Since so many people book these kinds of flights with little notice, you can usually get a very low fare even 3 weeks out.
Flights within Europe: Buy as early as possible
In reality the cheapest fares within Europe are almost all on the low-cost carriers such as Easyjet and RyanAir. If you are flying on any of those airlines, the fares ALWAYS start out cheap and get more expensive as more seats are sold. So the cheapest time to buy on a low-cost airline is NOW (or as soon as tickets go on sale, which is usually 11 months out).
Flying on a low-cost carrier (even to Europe): Buy now
As mentioned just above, if you are flying on one of the low-cost airlines, the seats go on sale about 11 months out at the lowest price, and they keep getting more expensive as each next group of seats are sold.
This is even true on Norwegian Airlines between the US and Europe. They offer the lowest fares in general on scores of popular routes, so if you are sure of your dates you should buy the tickets as soon as possible to lock in the lowest fare. They won’t be getting any cheaper.
Cheapest times of the year to fly
The trends above should be valid for flights for most of 2018 and into 2019, but there are a few times of the year that are always a bit cheaper than others. For this information we look to research from Rick Seaney of FareCompare, who has been doing this longer than anyone else.
Domestic US flights are cheapest
January 7 to March 5 (between Christmas Break and Spring Break)
April 18 to June 2 (between Spring Break and Summer travel season)
August 22 to mid December (most summer trips end and autumn is a slower season)
If you can fly in any of the periods mentioned above you are likely to get lower fares than if you fly during the traditionally busier periods.
US to Europe flights are cheapest
Before June and after mid August (summer season is by far the busiest, and it ends earlier than you might think)
Weekdays and especially Tuesdays and Wednesdays (Even more so than domestic travel, trans-Atlantic travelers like to travel Fridays through Sundays, so flying the other days will almost always be cheaper).
Cheapest time to book flights for Christmas and New Year's trips
According to a 2015 study by Skyscanner, the absolute cheapest time to book flights for the popular dates just before Christmas and New Years is August 10 to 16, at least based on their 2014 data. The study also shows that fares only inch up a bit in later August and into September, but that by early November the fares will be closer to their peak.
Previously we’d heard that it’s best to buy holiday flights as early as possible, which is usually 11 months out for most airlines. I think that’s still mostly true, partly because it will allow you to pick the best possible departure times in both directions. But if you aren’t quite so picky as to which time of day you leave and return, waiting until mid August seems like a decent idea and you’ll still get a relatively good fare.
Important exception: Book flights on low-cost airlines as early as possible, always
If you are thinking about booking a flight on a low-cost airline, such as Southwest or Spirit in the US, or EasyJet or Ryanair in Europe, or Air Asia in Asia, the cheapest fare will always be as early as you are ready to commit. Unlike the more traditional airlines, the low-cost carrier revenue model is based on starting with all seats as cheap as they’ll ever be when the flight is officially in the system. Then as seats are sold on that flight, the fare goes up as the plane is selling out. So maybe the first 20% of the seats are sold at the lowest price, and when those are gone, the next 20% are sold at a higher price, and so forth until all seats are sold or the plane takes off.
However, it’s important to consider the fact that “low-cost airlines” aren’t necessarily cheaper than their more traditional counterparts. Specifically, Southwest Airlines will often be more expensive than American or United, at least once the first group of cheap seats is gone. Also, since traditional airlines do in fact lower fares during the sweet spot of a few weeks to a few months before departure, you might find that waiting for those lower fares might be the best deal of all.
Flights are still often cheapest on Tuesdays and Wednesdays
There has been some confusion over the years about this fact, partly because some of the reporting has been about the day of the week the flight is booked rather than the day of the week the flight is taken. Some data showed that prices were higher for bookings on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and lower on Saturdays. The problem with this is that most business fares are booked on weekdays and those fares are higher, and most people buying on a Saturday are leisure travelers and they are price-sensitive so they only buy cheaper tickets.
My favorite trick for finding the best fares for an upcoming flight is to check for that route on a Wednesday and returning on a Wednesday. That will almost always show you the lowest possible fare, and then you can compare prices of other days of the week to see how much more you are willing to pay to fly on, say, a Friday or Saturday.
The advice: Check any and every day of the week, and if it’s the weekend you might want to wait a few more days to see if fares drop.
Why do airfares go up and down and up again as the day approaches?
Looking at the data above, you might think the airlines are playing some sort of game with flyers, but these pricing policies are actually a result of elaborate data and computer models that help them make the most money from each plane that leaves the ground. Here’s why:
People who buy plane tickets early are less price sensitive
In the world of economics they call this being “inelastic” in that in some situations consumers will buy almost exactly as many tickets, even if the price is higher. Airlines (obviously) want to maximize their profit for every seat they sell on the plane, so they take advantage of those who are driven to lock in early.
Consumers who buy early might:
- Already have set vacation days they want to use all of
- Be attending an event, such as a wedding, where there’s no flexibility
- Be someone who feels great stress until the ticket is locked in
In the above situations, whether a round-trip between Los Angeles and London is US$800 or US$1100, the person buying at least 3 months out is likely to buy either way. There is little incentive to airlines to sell a ticket for $800 if they’d sell almost as many at $1100.
People who buy plane tickets late are also less price sensitive
Similarly, consumers who are interested in flying 10 or fewer days from any given moment are also inelastic. They are likely to pay a premium for the convenience of going soon, so there’s little incentive for airlines to discount these tickets either.
Consumers who buy at the last minute might:
- Have just gotten approval for fixed time off soon
- Have an event on a fixed date (a football game, etc)
- Be someone who hates to commit to things early, and is willing to pay extra for the added flexibility
Now, keep in mind, that anyone who is hoping to fly in 10 days or fewer from now will see higher prices, and they’ll have the option of going 2 or 3 weeks later to save quite a bit of money. This price discrimination allows airlines to sell more expensive seats to those who can’t wait, and cheaper tickets to those who can.
What happened to cheap “last-minute” fares?
In reality, it’s always been difficult to find last-minute airfare bargains, at least to specific places you already want to visit. There are still examples of those weekly fare sales where an airline publishes a list of last minute bargain flights, but anyone who’s paid attention to them can see the problem.
They tend to offer cheap flights between obscure city pairs on the least popular travel dates. So if you are ready to fly between, say, Charlotte and Bermuda this coming Saturday and return the following Tuesday, those last-minute deals could be for you. But for most of us, they never appear for places we really want to go and at times we want to travel.
Why no last-minute deals, you might ask? Why are airlines willing to fly with empty seats instead of filling them for low prices?
The reason airlines don’t lower prices for unsold seats at the last minute is that the last thing they want to do is condition travelers to wait until the last minute, hoping for a bargain, and then sometimes not flying at all when a bargain doesn’t appear.
Think about it. If you wanted to go from Los Angeles to London at some point soon, and a round-trip next month is $900, but if you go in 2 days it’s only $650, you are likely to buy the cheap ticket two days from now, or skip it and hope that the same deal is available next month when you are ready to go.
Airlines make more money on each plane-load of people if they condition passengers into buying earlier at higher prices, or very early at even higher prices.
When to wait for fare sales
This all ties in with the economic principles above. You’ll notice fare sales by various airlines, and they usually appear in the middle of a season (summer, for example) trying to fill up seats for the rest of that season. In some cases they’ll announce an autumn fare sale in August, but it always tends to be for times of the year when the fewest people travel, namely, January through March plus October and November.
If you are waiting for a fare sale and wondering when it might appear, it’s important to consider the airlines’ motivation in announcing them. Let’s say they announced an October fare sale in June, with round-trip fares way lower than those offered in summer. That would actually cannibalize their business for July through September. If someone is considering paying a high fare to fly in August, the airlines are not motivated to show them a much lower fare if they waited. That would lead to empty seats in late summer, which would be very costly for them.
In almost all cases you are best off waiting until 6 weeks or so before your departure date, but it’s also important to track the fares before that, and keep an eye on fare sales.
This same research by the AP also said that fare sales usually appear on Tuesdays and are over by the end of Thursday, so check fares early in the week and if a price drops then jump on it. They also found the highest fares showed up for those searching on Saturdays and Sundays, so you might be best off just skipping the weekends for fare research anyway.
Hi Roger
Thanks for the advice will make a decision very soon!
Angie
Looking for direct flight 3 adults London to Kuala Lumpur 19dec to 3 jan BA quote £3491 now should I wait??? Or book now as its Christmas???? Always get it wrong help!!!!
Angie,
In general, the fares for these longer flights have been at their cheapest several months in advance, and sometimes cheapest up to 7 months in advance. But when it comes to prime Christmas travel dates like these, the advice has always been to book as early as possible. So if I were you I’d buy now because chances are far better of the fares going up from here rather than down.
However, I just ran those dates and noticed that Lufthansa is offering flights on those dates with a change of planes in Frankfurt for £719 per person, which seems pretty good for prime weekend flights during the holidays. If you need to fly nonstop then the BA flights will be your best bet. Either way, I’d book soon. Best of luck. -Roger
Hi Roger,
Thanks for al, your great advice.
My 8 year old child and I are flying to Germany (Seattle-Frankfurt) in October (our departure dates are pretty open) and need to return the first week of January.
Thus far I found out that buying two sets of one way tickets seem cheaper.
The best deal I found in October is about $ 890 for both of us one way with Icelandair.
I’m a bit worried though since we only have a 40 minute layover in Reykjavik.
Condor would be around 1100 one way for both of us via nonstop flight.
I can’t really afford to buy a round trip ticket right now (have to wait for my next student loan in October).
So here’s my questions:
1: Do you think the one way tickets will be even cheaper for our October departure than the prices mentioned above or should I buy now.
2: Would you be worried about a 40 min layover not being enough time ? (even though the airport is supposedly really small and manageable).
3: Since I have to wait until October to buy the return tickets, will that be enough time to get a good price (not more than 1200 combined)?
Sorry for all the questions but I am pretty stressed out since finances are an issue and I don’t want to make a mistake by not booking now.
I’ve never flew with a “bargain” airline but only Lufthansa thus far and am a bit scared 🙂
Thank so much,
Julia,
The fares on IcelandAir tend to hold pretty steady until the flight is mostly sold out, and they don’t seem to drop much if at all. I’ve flown with them and tracked fares with them many times. Honestly, US$890 for two one-way tickets from Seattle to Frankfurt seems like a great deal so I’d jump on that soon. The fare might not go up for a while, but I doubt it will go down.
There are two other slightly complicated things about your trip. One is that round-trip flights are usually only “cheap” when it’s 60 days or less from start to finish, which is why your round-trips might be seeming expensive. The other is that early January is prime travel time in much of the world, so it might be challenging to find a low fare when you book in October or later.
If IcelandAir is selling you tickets from Seattle to Frankfurt with a 40-minute layover, I wouldn’t worry about it at all. It is a small airport and all of the gates are bunched in the same area, so you’ll probably have to walk about 100 feet from your inbound gate to your outbound gate. IcelandAir seems to have it worked out efficiently where their long-haul flights land around the same time and their flights onto Europe leave about an hour later. So the airport is pretty crowded during that short time where everyone is changing planes, but they have the system worked out so there is enough time for passengers and their luggage to get to the right place before they all depart again.
However, if you were to, say, fly to Reykjavik on IcelandAir and then to Frankfurt on Wow Air, then 40 minutes would be cutting it close. As long as it’s the same airline for both flights, you should be fine.
For your return flights it might be tricky to get a decent deal. I’d recommend booking and buying as soon as you can when the funds are available. The good news is that you’ll have many options available. Obviously you’ll try Frankfurt to Seattle first and see what fares look like. If those seem high you might get a better deal leaving from Dusseldorf (a couple hours by train away) on Air Berlin. Or you could potentially find a cheap one-way flight first to Dublin or Oslo or Reykjavik, and then a cheap flight from that city back to the US. If you have trouble with it when you are ready, let me know and I’ll try to help. Best of luck with it all. -Roger
Hi Roger —
Thanks for all of the tips above. Very helpful.
My girlfriend and I are looking to head to Europe this fall (September). We finally decided on a rough itinerary and it seems like we should book flights earlier rather than later… it looks like we’re actually in your international flight sweet spot of 81 days this Thursday.
We’re looking to do a stopover flight from Seattle to Iceland, then onto Glasgow. We’ll make our way around to Copenhagen and fly home from there. Prices right now are between $1700-1800/ea. for a round trip.
I’m not a super experienced traveller, but my partner is and she says that seems like too much.
What is your experience? Should we give it some more time? Adopt a different flight strategy, or is this actually reasonable and should we consider locking these prices down before they get even higher?
– Nick
Nick,
At first glance I think your partner might be right about that fare. It’s not outrageous for 3 one-way flights on those routes, but I think you can do better. And however you do it, I’d buy pretty soon for the best fares.
Checking now, I’m seeing that flight from Seattle to Reykjavik for US$505 per person (I’ve done that flight myself not long ago) on Iceland Air on September 16 as an example. Iceland Air will probably keep fares at about that level for a month or two, and I doubt they’ll lower it from here.
The next leg could be a bit tricky because there are no nonstop flights from Reykjavik to Glasgow, or even to Edinburgh which is a larger airport only a short distance away. It looks like you’d have to book on SAS for about US$200 and change planes in Stockholm after a long layover. Instead you might take a nonstop on Iceland Air from Reykjavik to Manchester for US$136 and then a train from the Manchester Airport to Glasgow Central in 3.5 hours for about US$40. It’s only a bit cheaper but it would be faster and far more interesting.
From Copenhagen to Seattle you could do a one-way on Iceland Air with a short change in Reykjavik for around US$530. That combination would only cost around US$1,200 per person, with efficient connections on good airlines. You might have to play around with the dates a bit to get those prices, but I’m seeing them available for your time frame right now. And again, the chances of the fares going up from here are far greater than the chances of them going down soon, so I’d book in the coming week or so if you can.
I’ve done all of these trips myself and I love trying to figure out the best way to get around, so feel free to follow up if you have more questions about it. Have a great trip. -Roger
I’m looking to fly from San Francisco to southern India (Kochi) in early January with onward flights to Nepal (in April) and then Bali (in May). I found a flight for $1315 US dollars for all 3 flights (and has stayed steady at this price for a couple weeks now). This seems like a great price to me, but I’ve never flown to Asia and I’ve just starting tracking flights. I don’t want to buy it now if it’s going to drop later in the year. What are your thoughts? Thank you!
Sarah,
That actually does sound like a pretty good deal, although one-way flights from the US to Asia tend to be cheaper than most people expect. You may be happy to learn that one-way flights to Asia tend to be half the price of round-trip flights, which isn’t true going to Europe or many other places.
So what I’d do is look at each of these segments individually. For example, I see that SFO to Kochi is starting at US$677 one-way (on Singapore Airlines, which is great) for a flight in October. Early January is the busiest month in southern India, so anything under around US$800 will be a pretty good deal. You might also check the fares flying into Mumbai or New Delhi and then a connecting flight on an Indian airline to Kochi. That might be a bit cheaper, although a bit more of a hassle.
From Kochi to Kathmandu I’m seeing fares of US$150 one-way on Air India (the best Indian airline) with a stop in New Delhi. That’s about as low as that one will get, but if you waited and booked that flight while you are actually in India next year I doubt it will be much more expensive. If your plans might be a bit flexible, it could be better to wait. For example, you might take a train from Kochi to Goa and then to Mumbai for a visit, and then you could get an even cheaper ticket from Mumbai to Kathmandu. But if your plans are pretty solid, anything around US$150 is a very good deal.
From Kathmandu to Bali I’m seeing fares around US$350 in that month, which is a pretty good deal as well. I see a couple of smaller airlines with the best fares, but also Air Asia for just a bit more. Air Asia is one of my favorite airlines in the world for their combination of good prices and good service. Again, if your schedule might be flexible, you probably won’t pay too much more if you waited to book that segment. There are many airlines that can get you from Kathmandu to Bangkok or Kuala Lumpur (or Singapore for that matter), and after that it’s a cheap Air Asia flight to Bali.
So adding all of those up, I’d say that US$1,315 is a good deal if you like the flight times and connections. You’ll probably want to book that flight to Kochi fairly soon (within a few months) but you can wait longer on the other ones and the fares probably won’t change much. Best of luck with this. -Roger
Hi Roger,
My family and I are planning to have a holiday next month July 20-Aug 20. London-Manila(Asia)do you think that I shoud book 5 weeks before we fly? Please advise.Thanks
Dy,
For longer flights like that, the trend is that the lowest fares are showing up earlier. I’d buy that one as soon as possible. Best of luck. -Roger
I’m planning a trip to Jamaica (Runaway Bay) for either mid Nov or first of Dec 2015 and right now an all inclusive trip is running about $1850 per person for a 7 day all adults resort (jewel paradise) was wondering if the prices will go down by then or will they just stay the same or even go up. In your opinion when should i start to book this trip. Thanks in advance.
Ashley,
If you were just shopping for airfare then it’s likely that the fare would be lowest only 2 or 3 weeks from departure. But with a resort bundle like this, they are offering low prices to try to fill the place up as early as possible. In my experience, you can sometimes get great last-minute package deals in the Caribbean, but it may not be for any of your top-choice resorts. On the other hand, your trip will be in low season in the Caribbean so you might get lucky.
Long story short, the most popular resorts are likely to be sold out or have high prices if you wait to book, but if you are open to whichever resort is offering the best deal then you can probably get a very good price even in November. Best of luck with it. -Roger
Hi, Im planning for a trip from Singapore to Zurich somewhere around mid dec to 3rd Jan. The price for 2 adults + 1 infant now is about $3k. Should I wait till 11weeks before departure? Will the price drop considering its the holiday season?
Anna,
If I were you I’d plan on buying those tickets fairly soon. Longer flights like this have become cheaper earlier in the cycle lately, so I’d expect the lowest fares about 6 months out. However, since this is also in the heart of the popular holiday travel season, the fares were probably lowest a few months ago. The thing is that the airlines reduce fares a few months out when they see that they have too many empty seats on certain flights, as lowering the fare is a good way of filling the planes up. But for holiday periods like this, the airlines know they can fill up every seat without discounting, so they rarely lower fares at all. The fare you found doesn’t sound too bad, considering the holiday dates, so I’d buy soon. Best of luck. -Roger
i am planning a trip to Puerto Rico departing July 22 to August 4.for 3 adults. Prices right now average 450+. When should I really start looking to cheaper tickets
Irma,
It would help to know your starting airport so I could run some tests. Generally speaking, the discounted airfares into the Caribbean only become available about 2 or 3 weeks out, so that would be early July for you. One problem is that it’s always a bit of a gamble with this sort of thing. They will cut fares if they have quite a few empty seats on those flights, but if they flights are filling up already then the fare will stay the same or go up. And July and August are obviously high season months for air travel in general, so it’s hard to be confident that prices will drop. At least those months are part of the low season in the Caribbean, so you could get lucky. It’s also good that you are planning on flying midweek, as those flights are more likely to be less full that the weekend flights.
So long story short, it’s a mixed bag and it would mean rolling the dice if you were to wait. Good luck on this. -Roger
Wow, thank you for your very thorough and thoughtful response Roger – I truly appreciate it! thank you!!